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Monday, February 27, 2006 

The polls are not reliable

To help clear up any confusion on electoral polls in Israel, here's something from Israel National News that points out that 75% of citizens don't participate in the polls:
"The polls are distorted, as we will see after the elections," says Dr. Aharon Fein of the Tatzpit public opinion institute.

Fein, speaking with Arutz-7's Hebrew newsmagazine on Sunday, said, "75% of the public does not cooperate with pollsters. I estimate that many of these lean to the right-wing and religious parties, thus that the published results do not represent their opinions."

"The distortion of the polls will become clear in the election itself," Fein warns, "when those who do not take part in surveys actually cast their vote."

"One of the ethical rules of public opinion polls that is largely ignored," according to Fein, "is the publication of those who refuse to take part in the poll. It would be appropriate for the media to demand that the pollsters release this number as well."

Many of the polls also do not take into account those who have not yet decided. Fein says this number is estimated at one-sixth of the electorate, or 20 Knesset seats.

Polls have consistently shown Kadima winning approximately 40 seats in the upcoming elections, with Labor and Likud lagging far behind with approximately 20 and 16 seats, respectively.
An interesting thing about the polls is how many of them, conducted as they are by left-wing polling outfits such as the Smith Institute and Ma'agar Mohot, show Labor coming in second place, whereas Likud seems deliberately placed in third spot. Seeing that, it wasn't hard to figure out that they could certainly be distorted deliberately to the point of bias against the Likud.

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