Putin invades Crimea in Ukraine
Putin counts among the world’s most predictable heads of state. If we listen to his words and watch his actions, we know exactly how he will behave in any specific situation. We know that Putin will not let the Assad regime fail, will continue to protect Iran’s nuclear ambitions, will pose a constant threat to democratic Georgia, and he will support any regime that bucks U.S. interests. We know that he will not accept the results of Ukraine’s Maidan revolution. He will play a maximalist game – the de facto partition of Ukraine – if he anticipates no real pushback from Europe and the United States. Crimea is gone to Russia for all practical purposes. Putin is now eying his next morsels. [...]And alas, it looks like it will. The Cold War is upon us again, and Russia's parliament is now proving it by calling for their ambassador to the USA to be recalled. Once again, Obama's led to disaster.
Barack Obama represents the most useful tool in Putin’s armory. Putin understands that he and Obama share a common belief that the United States overextended itself overseas under George W. Bush, and needs to scale back on its foreign involvements, irrespective of their costs and benefits. Obama’s naïve “reset” policy delivered into Putin’s hands virtually everything he wanted – withdrawal of missile systems from Eastern Europe, inaction on Georgia, silence with respect to human rights violations – while demanding no concessions in return. He has watched, and played host to Edward Snowden, as Obama sets “red lines” and warns of “consequences” and then does nothing. Putin must laugh when Obama’s apologists argue that we must tread lightly with Russia because we need their help with respect to Iran and Syria. What help and when will it come? What fools, he must think.
Without a strong U.S. hand, we cannot count on those countries most immediately affected – Poland, Germany and France — to counter Putin’s expansionism. They will wring their hands, consult among themselves, and watch as the inevitable occurs.
Labels: Europe, France, germany, political corruption, Russia, United States