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Friday, May 18, 2018 

Population projections for Haredi society are less than prior estimations

In some interesting news about what the size of the ultra-Orthodox community could be like in the future, it's actually lower than previously thought:
The size of the haredi (ultra-Orthodox) population by 2059 will be significantly lower than previous forecasts have predicted, according to a new study by the Taub Center for Social Policy Studies released on Wednesday.

Although the Central Bureau of Statistics recently forecast that the haredi population would be 50% of the Jewish population by 2059, data from the haredi education system indicates it will be 35% of the population by then, the study by Prof. Alex Weinreb and Nachum Blass said.

The study showed that among pupils in the country’s different education systems – state, state-religious and haredi – those in the haredi system increased at the fastest rate between 2001 and 2015.

But, from 2013 to 2015 the growth in the number of pupils in the haredi system was 7.5% lower than would otherwise be expected from data regarding the fertility rate in the haredi sector.

The study found that a significant cause behind this lower growth was changes in the religious orientation of students and their families, reflected in student transfers between education streams.

[...] According to the researches, previous studies have shown that trends of decreased religiosity continue until 12th grade, and about 15% of haredim in each generation are expected to leave the sector.
Interesting. If they're leaving the lifestyle behind and integrating more with regular society, including the non-Haredi religious community, that's a good thing. It shows they're trying to join the workforce too, contribute more to society, and above all, obtain better education as well. Which is an excellent thing indeed.

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